Everyone interested in the Future of the Web will likely have had their attention firmly fixed in the direction of San Francisco last week as the city hosted the sixth annual Web 2.0 Summit with speakers from the likes of Adobe, AOL, Facebook, foursquare, Google, Intel, Linden Lab, Microsoft, MySpace, PayPal, Twitter, Yahoo! and many, MANY more.
However it was the CEO of Zynga, Mark Pincus and his definition of Web 3.0 as the App Economy that interested me in relation to the subject of this blog. Although his presentation focused on social gaming, and in particular using Facebook as a portal, when Mark Pincus referred to the third business plan of the Internet, was his reference wider than the world of online, casual gaming?
Apple’s announcement that 2 billion apps have been downloaded from the iPhone App Store has proven the popularity of one-click (or one-touch) downloadable content, even when charged. Sony are now looking to replicate this model with the launch of PSP Minis; small (100MB or less), download-only games. Content in the form of apps does seem to be working well on the mobile platform, which would certainly support Pincus’s App Economy definition, and people are prepared to pay for services through their mobile device that they would expect for free through their desktop/laptop browsers.
So which way will this turn? Can developers of mobile applications, whether games or otherwise, continue to profit from their creations? Surely there is a breaking point which may or may not have already been hit. I believe that the recent announcement that in-app purchasing will be made available for free iPhone Apps comes as a result of demand for alternative ways for developers to monetize their apps, suggesting that consumers are either less willing to pay for apps, or that the market (particularly the iPhone App Store) has become saturated making it difficult for independent developers to make any profit whatsoever, or perhaps both. Alternatively will consumers realise the worth of content they are prepared to pay for and return to paying for services online? The latter is certainly the hope of the newspaper/magazine industry, and only time will tell whether or not this approach will prove to be fruitful. Assuming it is, will this open out to other sites and services once again? Will online widgets become chargeable in their own right as opposed to their monetization being tied to the relationships with their hosts?
Of course as web platforms increasingly opt for open source builds and invite third party developers to make use of their APIs, this would result in many developers wanting a piece of the proverbial pie. Could such an early return to subscription models, one-click pay-per-downloads and other forms of micro-transactions sustain this demand? I am not so sure. Only when, and indeed if, this reaches a certain level of maturity and stability do I believe that the web will be able to be described as the App Economy.









Turtle Questions
Firstly, we would like to take this opportunity to thank all of the people that have contributed their thoughts and opinions about what the future of the web might look like to this blog, and we certainly look forward to this discussion continuing next Monday (16th November) at 53 Degrees in Preston where the Future of the Web turtles will be taking place.
What is interesting, but unsurprising, is that everybody’s current experience of the Internet, and therefore their expectations for the future of the web, varies quite considerably. Some see the opportunities in the advancement, both in terms of technology and usage, of 3D virtual worlds on the web, whether for corporate use, education and training or just socialising. Others see the future of the web as manifesting itself primarily outside of the browser, whether through mobile devices, web-enriched products or home appliances. And some see the range of open source/freemium online tools hitting the web offering accessible collaboration opportunities to communities across the web. Others, perhaps with a background in the more traditional forms of media, are challenged with monetizing their web content and services in order to maintain a high level of quality without their customer base deserting them.
With all of the above in mind, the questions that have been set to continue the discussion on the day of the Future of the Web turtles are as follows;
1. Will the future of the web be led by education or industry?
2. What are the implications of open source on the future of the web?
3. The future of the web depends upon…?
These questions are deliberately quite open to allow for all of the thoughts and opinions which surfaced within the blog to be re-addressed, but also to allow for new perspectives to have a voice. Collectively from our diverse range of backgrounds and experience, let’s use OPEN09 as the platform to have all of our voices heard, whether you believe that the use of virtual worlds in education should be introduced earlier than university level, which might suggest a need to update teacher training course curriculums, or that broadband speeds in the UK need to improve much further than was identified in the Digital Britain report for the country to compete in the International marketplace, or that green tech requires better investment.
We very much look forward to this discussion continuing on Monday and look forward to meeting you all in person on the day.
posted by: digitaldocs - view / reply
posted by: Ian Wareing - view / reply
Great ideas that are relevant and usable are the future of the web. These can come from anywhere – passionate individuals to big business – but ultimately their longevity and relevance is determined by us the user.
The technological aspects will have the largest implication in the future of the web, especially in aiding people to deliver their ideas. With faster broadband, both fixed and mobile, and the dawning of HTML5 we should see a richer internet moving forward faster than ever before. Exciting times.
posted by: adam - view / reply