Turtle Questions

Firstly, we would like to take this opportunity to thank all of the people that have contributed their thoughts and opinions about what the future of the web might look like to this blog, and we certainly look forward to this discussion continuing next Monday (16th November) at 53 Degrees in Preston where the Future of the Web turtles will be taking place.

What is interesting, but unsurprising, is that everybody’s current experience of the Internet, and therefore their expectations for the future of the web, varies quite considerably. Some see the opportunities in the advancement, both in terms of technology and usage, of 3D virtual worlds on the web, whether for corporate use, education and training or just socialising. Others see the future of the web as manifesting itself primarily outside of the browser, whether through mobile devices, web-enriched products or home appliances. And some see the range of open source/freemium online tools hitting the web offering accessible collaboration opportunities to communities across the web. Others, perhaps with a background in the more traditional forms of media, are challenged with monetizing their web content and services in order to maintain a high level of quality without their customer base deserting them.

With all of the above in mind, the questions that have been set to continue the discussion on the day of the Future of the Web turtles are as follows;

     1. Will the future of the web be led by education or industry?

     2. What are the implications of open source on the future of the web?

     3. The future of the web depends upon…?

These questions are deliberately quite open to allow for all of the thoughts and opinions which surfaced within the blog to be re-addressed, but also to allow for new perspectives to have a voice. Collectively from our diverse range of backgrounds and experience, let’s use OPEN09 as the platform to have all of our voices heard, whether you believe that the use of virtual worlds in education should be introduced earlier than university level, which might suggest a need to update teacher training course curriculums, or that broadband speeds in the UK need to improve much further than was identified in the Digital Britain report for the country to compete in the International marketplace, or that green tech requires better investment.  

We very much look forward to this discussion continuing on Monday and look forward to meeting you all in person on the day.

Posted in General | 3 Comments
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  • The future of the web will be decided by the people who use it. Some will be in industry, some in education, some in social media.....some will be nurses, others will be fishermen, politicians, mechanics, accountants, police officers, taxi drivers..... as far away from 'education' and 'industry' as it gets. 'Google' wasn't an 'industry' - Tim Berners Lee was a researcher - Facebook was a student start up. The debate is less polarised than this question suggests

    posted by: digitaldocs - view / reply

  • Which is precisely what makes this a great opening question. From the off, participants will question whether education or industry are empowered at all to lead the direction of the Internet.

    posted by: Ian Wareing - view / reply

  • @digitaldocs - I tend to agree.

    Great ideas that are relevant and usable are the future of the web. These can come from anywhere – passionate individuals to big business – but ultimately their longevity and relevance is determined by us the user.

    The technological aspects will have the largest implication in the future of the web, especially in aiding people to deliver their ideas. With faster broadband, both fixed and mobile, and the dawning of HTML5 we should see a richer internet moving forward faster than ever before. Exciting times.

    posted by: adam - view / reply

The App Economy

Everyone interested in the Future of the Web will likely have had their attention firmly fixed in the direction of San Francisco last week as the city hosted the sixth annual Web 2.0 Summit with speakers from the likes of Adobe, AOL, Facebook, foursquare, Google, Intel, Linden Lab, Microsoft, MySpace, PayPal, Twitter, Yahoo! and many, MANY more.  

However it was the CEO of Zynga, Mark Pincus and his definition of Web 3.0 as the App Economy that interested me in relation to the subject of this blog. Although his presentation focused on social gaming, and in particular using Facebook as a portal, when Mark Pincus referred to the third business plan of the Internet, was his reference wider than the world of online, casual gaming?

Apple’s announcement that 2 billion apps have been downloaded from the iPhone App Store has proven the popularity of one-click (or one-touch) downloadable content, even when charged. Sony are now looking to replicate this model with the launch of PSP Minis; small (100MB or less), download-only games. Content in the form of apps does seem to be working well on the mobile platform, which would certainly support Pincus’s App Economy definition, and people are prepared to pay for services through their mobile device that they would expect for free through their desktop/laptop browsers.

So which way will this turn? Can developers of mobile applications, whether games or otherwise, continue to profit from their creations? Surely there is a breaking point which may or may not have already been hit. I believe that the recent announcement that in-app purchasing will be made available for free iPhone Apps comes as a result of demand for alternative ways for developers to monetize their apps, suggesting that consumers are either less willing to pay for apps, or that the market (particularly the iPhone App Store) has become saturated making it difficult for independent developers to make any profit whatsoever, or perhaps both. Alternatively will consumers realise the worth of content they are prepared to pay for and return to paying for services online? The latter is certainly the hope of the newspaper/magazine industry, and only time will tell whether or not this approach will prove to be fruitful. Assuming it is, will this open out to other sites and services once again? Will online widgets become chargeable in their own right as opposed to their monetization being tied to the relationships with their hosts?

Of course as web platforms increasingly opt for open source builds and invite third party developers to make use of their APIs, this would result in many developers wanting a piece of the proverbial pie. Could such an early return to subscription models, one-click pay-per-downloads and other forms of micro-transactions sustain this demand? I am not so sure. Only when, and indeed if, this reaches a certain level of maturity and stability do I believe that the web will be able to be described as the App Economy.

Posted in General, Open Source | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment
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  • Media products have to be viewed as dynamic applications with extensions via the web in order to tackle piracy is the message from Edo Segal, guest author for this great article on TechCrunch about the Future of the Media Industry

    http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/10/31/for-the-future-of-the-media-industry-look-in-the-app-store/

    posted by: Ian Wareing - view / reply

Google Wave

If open source is to be one of the defining features of Web 3.0 (or whatever handle you wish to use to refer to the next generation of the Internet) in the way that Web 2.0 is largely defined by sociability and community, then this blog would do well not to ignore the release of 100,000 invitations to join the beta test of Google Wave a week or so ago.

Wave is described by Google as an online tool for real-time communication and collaboration. The 80 minute online video of Google Wave previewed to developers at Google I/O back in May of this year had been viewed more than 4 million times by the time the invitations were released on 30th September according to The Guardian. No doubt that figure has crept up over the last week or so with increased press coverage of Wave. For those people that have managed to avoid the hype, Google Wave has been designed to merge the functionality of communication tools such as email, instant messaging (IM) and of course everybody’s favourite new kid on the block – social networking. Some of the neater features of Wave include real-time spelling and grammar checks, automated language translation, rich media editing, desktop to browser drag-and-drop (to use Lehman’s terms), etc. all of which is processed in real time and uses concurrency control technology allowing multiple uses to edit the same document, or Wave, at the same time.

At its most ambitious, Wave is hoped (by Google at least) to replace email. As grand as that might sound, you have to hand it to Google – rather than taking on the social networking giants such as Facebook, by building a social networking site that integrates seamlessly with Gmail, Google maps and of course Google search, they are instead looking to replace the very communication infrastructure that supports communication via individual social networking sites. Why aim to be the biggest fish in the pond when instead you could aim to be the actual pond! Wave replacing email is probably not the best way to describe what Google are hoping to achieve; rather Wave is hoped to represent the evolution of the standard methods of communication in the digital age that we have become accustomed to. And it makes sense that what we have learned during Web 2.0 actually goes into the philosophy of the next generation of the web rather than just being bolted onto the side of the web as we know it. 

Of course the success of Google Wave will be determined by uptake and usage, the biggest barrier against which is Google Wave’s incompatibility with Microsoft’s Internet Explorer, the most widely used web browser in the world. Internet Explorer users are able to use Wave, however they must first download a Chrome Frame plug-in which Microsoft claims causes an increased security risk. Is Microsoft shooting itself in the foot here? If running a browser within a browser does indeed compromise security as Microsoft claim, are users not more likely to convert to Google Chrome for their default web browsing services? With this in mind, did Google deliberately build Wave to be incompatible with Internet Explorer?

Whether or not Wave was built, in some part at least, as a weapon in Google’s artillery in the battle of the browsers, there is one element to Google Wave which I for one remain optimistic about, which ties back into the subject of this blog, and that is the fact that Wave is open source. Open source has proven its popularity, particularly with developers, over the last few years and it is a clear sign of things to come when the big players of the web opt for open source when developing their new products and services. Open source helps to level the playing field, and Google’s announcement of an open source tool such as Wave promises for an exciting, and unpredictable (but all the more exciting for being so) future of the web.

Posted in General, Open Source | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments
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  • I think it helps NOT to think of this as browser wars, or replacing email - Google are closing in on a point where all this web-enabled functionality is as ubiquitous and invisible as the myriad operations that happen when you boot up your PC or Mac, though much of it will happen cloud-side. For communications and media it should create continuity of experience because all the end user needs is something that can tap into the cloud - a phone, a netbook, the front panel on the fridge, a car.

    On the human side, will this instantly make us better collaborators, or do we need to brush up on those abilities to really get the most out of it?

    posted by: Simon Knight - view / reply

  • Instant collaboration, information on tap, all in a 3D real-world simulation. No need to travel, work from home, with constant monitoring to ensure efficiency and effectiveness. No more silly e-mails on works time, no office politics, etc. Heaven for the Creatives?

    posted by: rob rigby - view / reply

  • Recently came across this great little video on the Wired site, demonstrating some of the features of Wave using the Ezekiel 25:17 scene from Pulp Fiction. As the Wired site warns, "in case it's been a while since you saw Tarantino's classic, you're in for one colourfully-worded wave'

    http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2009-10/16/google-wave,-as-explained-by-samuel-l-jackson.aspx

    posted by: Ian Wareing - view / reply

  • So far, I feel Wave is an intermediate step between the time-lapse of email and the immediacy of Instant Messaging. Collaborators on a Wave can choose to instantly interact or take a measured approach, but also, I don't think Google themselves have a designated procedure for how users interact with and on the Wave. We're in the process of defining that interaction during the Preview.

    Blogged a bit more about it here... http://www.systemerror.co.uk/2009/10/17/first-wave-intact/

    posted by: jake74 - view / reply

Virtual Learning Environments

Are schools for the future going to use virtual environments for learning? – Manchester Met already do this with Second Life – We need to see this pushed down into younger ages at schools to get them more immersed and engaged with education.

Posted in General, Virtual Worlds | Tagged , , , , , , , | 5 Comments
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  • The Immersive Internet (II) is being hailed as the next big step for the Web. Quote:
    Immersive Internet is a nascent technology – projected to be mainstream in the next 5 years.
    Today’s Video Game Culture
    Kids playing multiplayer videogames and engaging in social networking –are tomorrow’s Business leaders, Partners, employees, decision makers . They will expect this technology.

    Slow Economy and Green Movement
    Pressure on corporate costs require different ways of doing business –travel expense hit hard. Companies are Carbon Aware!

    Large Technology Companies getting involved.

    Any thoughts?

    posted by: rob rigby - view / reply

  • The Immersive Internet (II) is being hailed as the next big step for the Web. Quote:
    Immersive Internet is a nascent technology – projected to be mainstream in the next 5 years.
    Today’s Video Game Culture
    Kids playing multiplayer videogames and engaging in social networking –are tomorrow’s Business leaders, Partners, employees, decision makers . They will expect this technology.

    Slow Economy and Green Movement
    Pressure on corporate costs require different ways of doing business –travel expense hit hard. Companies are Carbon Aware!

    Large Technology Companies getting involved.

    Any thoughts?



    Should this be called Isquared, 2I, AyeAye, HeHe, or I2?

    posted by: rob rigby - view / reply

  • HeHe is my vote.

    posted by: rob rigby - view / reply

  • Web.Alive Immersive Internet (2I or I squared) Presentation

    Presentation available at:

    http://www.box.net/shared/jlhdz56vl2

    is this the future?

    posted by: rob rigby - view / reply

  • Some schools already are (see http://news.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/hi/technology/newsid_7869000/7869303.stm) but generally they have been slow on the uptake compared to Universities. As John Kirriemuir of Virtual World Watch noted in his 2008 report for Eduserv roughly three quarters of UK universities are actively using Second Life. Reports since then suggest that this number is now much higher and also includes developments in other virtual world platforms such as OpenSim, Metaplace, There and Blue Mars.

    So why are schools so far behind? A recent post at Pixels and Policy may have some answers - it has a distinctly American slant but makes interesting reading (http://www.pixelsandpolicy.com/pixels_and_policy/2009/11/why-arent-schools-using-second-life.html).

    Personally I find it surprising that schools have been so slow on the uptake - particularly as many school age children have multiple virtual world accounts (my own 11 year old daughter is registered on Club Penguin, Barbie World, Moshi Monsters and several others - and is pestering me to allow her on Teen Second Life). According to a 2008 report from the Journal of Virtual Worlds Research 39% of all virtual world accounts are held by children aged under 15. So school age children understand virtual worlds far better than the rest of us - maybe its the teachers that need educating!

    posted by: domraban - view / reply

The Future of the Web

What will it be? We are going to be discussing the future of the web at OPEN 09 with particular emphasis on the implications of open source and the advancement of virtual environments. We would like to hear your views on this so please join the discussion online and if you can make it on the 16th / 17th November then we’ll see you there. We are working with Creative Lancashire to create our turtle discussing the above topics and will be joined on the day by speakers from across the region to give their views.

For us the implications of open source are huge – easy access, a large development community, open IP, self regulation, etc but also quite scary to the traditional media. In terms of virtual environments we will be exploring their use today and in the future and if they are the real driver of 3D on the web. Looking at the different uses of virtual environments we will look at the differences between consumer and corporate uses and also how virtual learning environments are becoming a hot topic in education.

Posted in General, Open Source, Virtual Worlds | Tagged | 14 Comments
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  • Virtual Reality Worlds will revolutionise Assisted Living for the elderly and disabled. By enabling realistic environments conducive to there culture will provide a Window on the World.

    3D spaces or Virtual Reality Worlds (VRWs) will enable and promote social/business/design networking and interaction by simulating the real world environments in real-time.
    Using the Web.alive software client and VRW software platform will provide a virtual multiple use interactive system for social, business, education, etc. applications. The “one-click and you’re in” capability ensures fast and easy entry to the VRW spaces.
    VRWs are created using the web.alive client and VRWs; and can be regarded as second generation “Virtual Worlds” or Web 3.0 / Web3D which supersede Web 2.0/2.5 and ‘Second Life’ style offerings.
    VRWs can be defined as tele-immersive, multi-user, on-line, highly realistic, 3D first-person perspective environments that blend 3D photo- realistic graphics with in-world realism and 3D spatial audio. VRWs are populated by multiple Avatars (representations of real people) who can interact and communicate with each other using 3D spacial voice (VOIP), text, gestures, files, 2D presentations, and video display. A client and VRW maps is freely downloadable from the internet for users with 2004 spec PCs. See MellaniuM Furnace at http://furnace.projectchansaw.com and Apex at http://apex.projectchainsaw.com for an example VRW (highly recommended).

    posted by: rob rigby - view / reply

  • Listening to radio this morning and discussion about England football match being streamed exclusively live over the web - the cynic in me says this is only because broadcasters wouldn't pay rights holders but is this a sign for future of the web - can mass market sports force better broadband speeds.? Could we see a virtual stadium environment with full streaming, merchandising, etc

    posted by: enda.carey - view / reply

  • I don't disagree with your thinking that it will help elderly however there may be a wait as there is still a techno fear factor for the elderly population - there are some great examples of how web technology is helping the elderly population in Japan.
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/population/news/article.cfm?c_id=608&objectid=10463145

    posted by: enda.carey - view / reply

  • Most of the fear is fear itself; the new HCI's like NATAL will remove lots of complexity. Using gestures and speech commends will provide an easy to use solution for social interactivity and communication. Limitations seem to be the will and resistance to change syndromes.

    posted by: rob rigby - view / reply

  • Hmm, 3D spaces simulating real-world environments in realtime - you might want to think about whether that creates time economies! Tesco Direct is rather swifter than navigating a 3D representation of Tesco, so keep in mind that verisimilitude isn't a virtue in and of itself.

    VLEs nonetheless will be a major factor in the mid-term. Where they are adopted successfully by institutions it will be one of several critical factors in transforming their approach to answer current training issues.

    Thinking off-screen, I think the web as a technology will grow increasingly pervasive: take as an example some toy companies already trying out Furbie-like toys that interact with web inputs. There'll probably be an ongoing IP war in this area which, if not resolved in time, opens a door of opportunity for microbusinesses using open source technologies to drive this interactivity.

    posted by: Simon Knight - view / reply

  • For the elderly and disabled it is a god send; the ability to socially interact and explore virtual real world spaces with others reduces loneliness and helps them to enjoy life. We should be mindful of these people and not exclude them from society for we will be there one day.

    posted by: rob rigby - view / reply

  • Your concern for the elderly and disabled is great - and that you are sagely anticipating your own senior moments. But I fear that currently the majority of people over the age of say 70 may be bewildered and alienated by the possibilities of virtual spaces. Might be worth popping round to an elderly neighbour, shake their hand and ask them how they're doing... ?

    posted by: fiona - view / reply

  • Seeing I'M nearly there; I shake my hand with my other hand and ask how are you doing; Very well Thankyou. Don't think we are in the grave just yet!!

    posted by: rob rigby - view / reply

  • New 3D environment "MellaniuM Dome" see http://ec3v3.projectchainsaw.com/

    Comments welcome; bring a headset

    posted by: Ken Rigby - view / reply

  • Hi Ken and Enda, Virtual worlds are being embraced in many areas... some more surprising than others.

    Tim Guest in his book 'Second Lives' describes a group of disabled patients in an institution who use virtual worlds to engage with others on an 'equal' basis, each participant controlling different aspects of the avatars body... who could have anticipated that?

    Fiona... over 70's TODAY may well be bewildered but over 70's in 20 years time will not.. for I will be one of those.

    posted by: Tony Tickle - view / reply